Kan Kaili said that 3G is doomed to lose money and launching it now would go against four major interests (News playback)

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Kan Kaili said that 3G is doomed to lose money and launching it now would go against four major interests (News playback) [Copy link]

The statement of Wang Xueqing, an expert from the National Development and Reform Commission, has given Kan Kaili's "3G slowdown theory" another supporter. Wang Xueqing clearly stated that if China issues 3G licenses this year, it will be an act that harms national interests. This coincides with the view that Professor Kan Kaili insisted on when he was interviewed by Sina.

　　Professor Kan Kaili once again put forward his new views to Sina Technology. "3G itself is facing contradictions and will eventually reach a dilemma. It can also be said that the 3G system is doomed to suffer serious losses. This is why Europe and the West finally came to the conclusion that the main investment in 3G is too high."

　　Kan Kaili gave an example, "A few months ago, there was a report about Shanghai Unicom, saying that Shanghai Unicom's CDMA1X 75% of the bandwidth received 7% of the revenue. That is to say, most of the bandwidth is not wasted or left idle, but people use it to surf the Internet, etc., but they can't get paid. Why? Because for example, people use laptops to surf the Internet, and consumers are very sensitive to prices, or they are extremely elastic. If the price is a little higher, people will not use it, but will use it when the price is low."

　　"Then 75% of the bandwidth actually represents 75% of the network capacity, which represents 75% of the investment. Therefore, 75% of the investment can only bring 7% of the revenue, which further shows that even in China's most highly developed economic region such as Shanghai, the demand for 3G is seriously insufficient."

　　"So I said that the 3G system is doomed to suffer losses!" said Kan Kaili.

　　Launching 3G violates four major interests

　　Kan Kaili said that 3G is first against the national interest. Because it will inevitably cause huge losses to our country. It should be said that this is inevitable from the current international and domestic practical experience. Moreover, no industry insider has refuted it so far, and no department has come up with a feasibility study and report to say how to make a profit. So it is completely against the national interest.

　　Second, 3G is also against the interests of the industry, because 3G will inevitably cause huge losses. Now the telecommunications industry is one of the most profitable industries in our country. It has suddenly become a huge loss. Where do you think the interests of the industry are? Of course, from another perspective, if our country quickly promotes WIFI and WIMAX for the sake of national interests and the long-term fundamental interests of the broad masses of people, this will also be a huge threat to the interests of the industry. But on the other hand, how much will it promote the entire national economy? How much will the productivity of modern technology be liberated? This effect is very huge.

　　Third, I think it is also against the interests of enterprises. Why? Which enterprise will lose money if it launches 3G? China Mobile, Netcom, and China Unicom will definitely do better than Li Ka-shing in 3G? Li Ka-shing loses 100 million yuan a year. How much are you prepared to lose in a day? So it is not good for the company to lose money, right? So I say it is against the interests of the company.

　　The loss of the company will inevitably affect the interests of employees. Now China Unicom CDMA 1X numbers cannot be released, and mobile phones are given away and free of charge. The company is losing money, and employees are having a hard time. At the end of the year, the company gives mobile phones to employees as bonuses. If you can give out your mobile phone number, the money will be counted as this year's bonus. Last year, an employee wrote to me and said that we already have eight mobile phones, and now we are still giving them away. Do you think the employees are suffering? In the future, when 3G is launched, mobile phones have not been released yet, and now you are asked to release this? How can life be easy? I think 3G is also against the interests of employees.

　　There is no market demand for 3G, such as the hopeless video phone

　　. Kan Kaili used the example of video phone to once again prove the view that "there is still no market demand for 3G".

　　"The main application of 3G is still voice, so this situation also exists in our country. This is determined by the basic communication methods of our people or human society. Because the communication between people is mainly through voice, and written expression is text. As for video images, especially dynamic videos, in fact, if they are done well, they can only be icing on the cake at most, but if they are not done well, they are superfluous."

　　Kan Kaili said that in the 1960s, Bell Labs in the United States conducted a lot of research on videophones, especially in terms of social needs, but the research results found that people often hope not to use video when making calls. Why? It's very simple, because many people's meanings are fully expressed through language. But adding video adds a lot of inconveniences, such as untidy clothes, and sometimes even inconveniences in many situations, such as taking a bath, going to the toilet, etc.

　　"So I think the first is that there is a serious lack of demand for 3G video services. The demand in the 3G market is still small. I don't think there is anything special about China in this regard," said Kan Kaili.

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I fully agree with Mr. Kan's point of view! Unfortunately, whether to use 3G is not just an economic issue.

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Teacher Kan Kaili can be regarded as a prophet in the field of Chinese communications. It's a pity that he is too bookish and too idealistic. Anyway, I admire Teacher Kan's courage to speak out.