Kalman filter method in dynamic extension

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Kalman filter method in dynamic extension [Copy link]

Application of Kalman filter method in
interpretation of dynamic extended forecast products

Mu Haizhen Xu Jialiang

Summary

　　According to the relationship between precipitation and atmospheric circulation on a monthly time scale, the Kalman filter method was used to predict precipitation on a monthly time scale using the dynamic extended forecast product of the T63 model of the National Climate Center. The results show that this model dynamic product interpretation scheme has a good application prospect in short-term climate prediction.
　　Keywords:　Kalman filter dynamic extended forecast short-term climate prediction

Application of Kalman Filter Method to Reexplanation and
Reanalysis of Dynamical Extended Range Forecast Products

Mu Haizhen Xu Jialiang
(Shanghai Climate Center, Shanghai 200030)

Abstract

　　According to the relationship between monthly rainfall and monthly general circulation and making use of dynamical extended range forecast products of National Climate Center′s T63 model,Kalman filter method was applied to attempt the monthly rainfall prediction.The result indicates that reexplanation and reanalysis of model dynamical products in this way have a good applied prospect in short-range climatic prediction.
　　Key Words：Kalman filter　dynamical extended range forecast　short-range climatic prediction

This article was funded by the National Ninth Five-Year Plan Key Project 96-908-05-06.
Mu Haizhen (Shanghai Climate Center, 200030)
Xu Jialiang (Shanghai Climate Center, 200030)

References

1. Lu Ruhua, Xu Chuanyu, Zhang Ling, et al. Initial value calculation method of Kalman filter and its application. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 1997, 8(1): 34-40.
2. Li Weijing, Chen Lijuan. Research on the interpretation method of dynamic extended forecast products. Journal of Meteorology, 1999, 57(3): 338-345.
3. Chen Guiying, Zhao Zhenguo. Short-term climate prediction evaluation method and operational preliminary estimation. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 1998, 9(2): 178-185[:D][:D]