The fast charging market welcomes the "triple salute", when will it explode?

Xiaomi was the first to release fast charging, but it was OPPO that promoted it and used it as a weapon. The smartphone market in 2014 was also full of different players: Xiaomi used participation to build an ecosystem, Huawei used aesthetics and chip hardcore, Hammer showed off its UI technology, and Apple had no rivals in the high-end market. It seems that the pain points are almost not enough.

After some thought, OPPO launched VOOC flash charging, which increased the fastest charging speed by 4 times, subverting the traditional charging method of "5V and 1A". Relying on the channel system, OPPO finally brought it to the top of the mobile phone market rankings.

However, a two-hour call only hits the pain point of some customers, after all, not everyone likes to spend a lot of time on the phone. Therefore, although other companies have also released products, the black technology of fast charging has almost no presence compared to triple-camera and quad-camera.

However, the situation this year is quite different. Xiaomi and Huawei have successively released fast-charging products, and the capital market has also enthusiastically pursued them. This makes people wonder: Will fast charging set off the next industry storm like TWS headphones?

It is still unknown how big the storm will be, but the fast-charging market is indeed welcoming a “triple salute”.

Tragically, the “three arrows” fired at the same time and the heavy pressure will cause the power consumption of mobile phones to become even more serious.

The first arrow comes from videos. It is difficult for most people to talk on the phone for two hours, but it is easy to watch Douyin, watch Sister and watch talk shows.

In 2020, the monthly active users of mainstream video platforms iQiyi, Youku and Tencent Video exceeded 350 million, and live broadcast users accounted for 62% of the total number of netizens. People born after 1990 spend more than 10,000 minutes online each month. The average monthly usage time of short videos on TikTok is close to 2,000 minutes. The increasing use of videos consumes much more power than pictures and texts. In particular, live broadcasts, which have been popular in the past two years, are also a big power consumer.

The second arrow comes from 5G. Although 5G technology is more advanced, it also causes the mobile phone itself to consume 20% more power than 4G.

On the one hand, 5G mobile phones use Massive MIMO antenna technology, which means that the phone must have at least 8 built-in antennas, and each antenna will increase some power consumption; and because the 5G network is still imperfect and cannot be continuously connected, this also causes the phone to constantly search for 5G signals, increasing power consumption.

The last arrow comes from the screen. Mobile phone screens are getting bigger and bigger, and the resolution is getting higher and higher, which will increase power consumption. For example, the iPhone 6 with an upgraded screen consumes 330mW more than the iPhone 5. In addition, the frequency of users taking photos is also increasing, whether it is taking photos of themselves, taking photos of food, or live broadcasting.

With these three factors, power consumption has skyrocketed. How can users not be anxious?

There are three solutions to the power consumption problem: make the battery bigger, add a power bank, or increase the charging speed.

However, the battery is currently at a bottleneck. It is difficult to make it bigger, thicker and ugly, and the energy density is also not effective. Power banks are expensive to rent and heavy to bring with you. Therefore, the hope of the whole village naturally falls on fast charging. After all, the time saved by users is a scarce resource.

02. Second Shot: Protocol Unification

The fast charging market has been warming up in the past two years, and one reason for its slow development is the lack of unified protocols.

All major manufacturers understand that whoever dominates the standards will be able to control the profits, so when faced with a new track, no one is willing to give in easily.

At present, all mainstream mobile phone manufacturers, except Apple, have their own fast charging protocols. For example, Huawei uses the SCP protocol, VIVO uses FlashCharge, OPPO uses its own SuperVOOC, and Qualcomm's QC protocol has been updated to version 3.0.

There seem to be many protocols, but they are nothing more than the knowledge of voltage and current. In layman's terms, the charging process is like pouring water from a large reservoir into a small reservoir. Voltage is equivalent to water pressure, current is equivalent to water flow, and the reservoir represents the battery. Increasing voltage is to increase the water flow rate by increasing the water level difference, and increasing current is to widen the width of the water pipe between the reservoirs.

Without a unified agreement and constant fighting, the market will naturally be unable to form a joint force to move forward.

After many rounds of adjustments and negotiations, the international organization USBIF finally released the fast charging protocol USBPD3.0 in 2019.

This groundbreaking protocol can not only coordinate different charging speeds, but also allow multiple devices to charge quickly, and even adds the surprise of bidirectional charging. Mainstream mobile phone manufacturers such as Apple, Huawei, and Samsung, which are tired of the melee, all nodded and said yes, and work together to serve (ge) consumers.

03. The third shot: Apple gift

As the fast-charging train roared along, Apple stepped on the accelerator again.

As the mobile phone market enters the inventory era, coupled with the impact of companies such as Huawei, Apple has also started to use the "price reduction" counterattack strategy.

The starting price of iPhone 11 has dropped to 5499 yuan, and iPhonese is as low as 3299. Although the price is discounted, the profit is still maintained. Therefore, Apple can only reduce the pressure on costs. For example, for the upcoming iPhone 12, there is news that Apple may cancel the free charging head.

If confirmed, this is big news. It will have an impact on the supply and demand of fast charging.

First of all, as an industry benchmark, Apple's every move will have a shocking impact on the industry and attract imitation from other friendly companies. For example, Apple canceled the 3.5mm headphone jack, canceled fingerprint recognition, added a "bangs" screen, and so on.

The cancellation of the free charger will stimulate users' demand for "fast charging" products. Apple used to give away ordinary chargers, and ordinary consumers would not buy fast chargers. Now that it is no longer given away, why not try out fast charging and buy from a third party.

Moreover, Apple's move may also increase the price of fast-charging products. After all, Apple's original ordinary chargers are sold for more than 150 yuan, which is much higher than the current 70 or 80 yuan fast chargers. From the perspective of substitution effect, it is not impossible for fast charging to increase in price.

In short, regardless of how big the fast charging market will be in the future, Apple’s actions alone cannot be ignored.

04. Ending

How big is the market behind the triple salute? According to estimates by Minsheng Securities, the market space for chargers designed with GaN technology will reach 32.7 billion yuan in 2020, with a compound growth rate of 109%.

As for the core GaN, the industry chain includes substrates, epitaxial wafers, and device manufacturing. The mainstream GaN manufacturers in the market are concentrated in Europe and Japan. In terms of materials, domestic companies still need to make great progress.

According to the test, it takes 3 hours and 45 minutes to fully charge the iPhone 11 using Apple's standard 5V/1A charger. However, using Apple's 18W fast charging kit, the full charge time will be shortened by 1 and a half hours.

It can be said that fast charging is fun for a while, and fast charging is always fun. At least, this is a very good "incremental" market in the current stock era. Pay more attention to it, and everyone will say "Is it a roar?"