Power battery industry chain scan in 2023

Inventory and price adjustments have been completed, and the lithium battery industry is getting better.

Recently, many domestic new energy vehicle companies announced full-year sales data.

Among them, BYD completed sales of 3.024 million units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 62.3%, Li Auto sold 376,000 units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 182.2%, and GAC Aian completed 480,000 units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 77%. In addition, new energy vehicle companies such as Xpeng, Leapao, NIO, Jikrypton, and Lantu have all achieved good year-on-year growth.

Judging from the sales data and annual sales target completion of different car companies, the sales performance of leading car companies is better. For example, BYD and Li Auto have exceeded their targets, and GAC Aian and Wenjie have also completed more than 90% of their targets. sales Index. In contrast, the sales completion rate of new energy vehicle companies at waist level and below is average, which also shows that the performance of the new energy vehicle market is also showing a trend of differentiation.

Sorting out the changes in the power battery industry chain from December 2023 to the whole year of 2023 , especially the downstream new energy vehicle market, it is different from the previous sales cycle that opened high and moved high. This year's new energy vehicle market opened low and moved high. However, In the process of rising, 2023 will show a stronger recovery trend. By December 2023, the new energy vehicle market will continue to continue the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" peak season cycle.

According to the statistics of automobile dealers released by the China Automobile Association, the inventory warning index of automobile dealers in December was 53.7%, a decrease of 6.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the prosperity level has improved.

In terms of battery installation data, the sales trend of the downstream auto market, which opened low but then moved high, also drove power battery shipments to increase throughout the year. Market data shows that as of November 2023, the installed capacity of power batteries has reached 339.7GWh, a year-on-year increase of 31.4%, and the overall growth rate has been maintained at a medium to high level.

Moving to the midstream and upstream battery cells and materials, affected by overcapacity and changes in the sales cycle of the auto market in 2023, the battery cells and materials will be concentrated in two key words - price reduction and destocking.

On the one hand, the price of raw materials represented by lithium carbonate has dropped from 500,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 100,000 yuan/ton by the end of 2023. This has also driven the price of raw materials including lithium hexafluorophosphate, electrolytes , ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate. and other price changes for various materials. Similarly, negative electrode materials , separator materials, and current collector materials such as copper foil are also affected by the cost reduction demands of the industry chain, and prices continue to fall. The unit price of finished battery cells has also dropped below 0.5 yuan/Wh from 1 yuan/Wh at the beginning of the year.

On the other hand, major battery cell and material manufacturers have reversed their stocking thinking and turned to a more cautious inventory strategy. According to Gaogong Lithium Battery’s observation, some battery cell and material manufacturers will have inventories of two months or even longer at the beginning of 2023. By the end of the year, the inventory levels of most battery cell and material manufacturers had dropped to January or even lower levels. Many leading material and battery cell manufacturers also expressed that they would continue to maintain prudent and flexible procurement and inventory strategies.

Although 2023 has gone through a series of complex industrial adjustments, overall the industry chain inventory has decreased and stabilized, the pace of investment and production expansion in the industry has become more prudent, the industry's supply and demand structure has become more balanced, and the decline in material prices has also Help the battery cells complete the phased cost reduction task, thereby laying the foundation for increasing the penetration rate of new energy vehicles.

Looking forward to 2024, the power battery industry chain driven by the new energy vehicle market is making steady progress. Li Auto recently announced an annual sales target of 800,000 vehicles in 2024. NIO mentioned that high-end smart electric vehicles will enter a stage of explosive growth from 2024 to 2025.

The Gaogong Lithium Battery Industry Research Institute (GGII) believes that in 2024, as the cost of core component power batteries continues to decline and more and richer models are launched, domestic new energy vehicle sales will continue to grow. It is expected that domestic new energy vehicles will continue to grow in 2024. Car sales will reach 11.5 million units, new energy passenger vehicle sales will reach 11 million units, and the electrification penetration rate is expected to exceed 40%.