Tesla's battery is a covert move

Tesla 's recent series of operations (Tesla and Panasonic's three-year pricing agreement to expand US production capacity; an agreement with Glencore to purchase 6,000 tons of cobalt per year) really let us see what it means to build a plank road in the open and cross the Chencang Pass in secret. How will Battery Day be played? It may be around the improved version of the original technology route.

01 Panasonic’s collaboration and cobalt resources

1) Relationship with Panasonic 

Tesla and Panasonic had an unhappy relationship before, and this time they revised the battery supply agreement with Panasonic of Japan. The next three years have been locked in, and the price and production capacity have been determined. Under the condition that Panasonic increases investment to ensure supply capacity, Tesla will guarantee a certain purchase volume. From this perspective, Tesla will continue to maintain its Pack design, and combine procurement and self-production at the module and cell level. Therefore, in general, this method of price reduction + determining demand has once again achieved its goal.

Figure 1 Tesla's product demand estimate

From this logic, Tesla's control over suppliers is comprehensive. The dual adjustment of price and production capacity is based on its confidence in converting production capacity into sales.

2) Amount of cobalt used 

After this incident, according to media reports, Tesla reached a cobalt supply agreement with mining giant Glencore, which will supply cobalt materials used in the production of lithium-ion batteries for its new factory. In other words, the asset plan we see in the United States may be used by Tesla to produce batteries for its "super factories" in Shanghai and Berlin. This amount is at most 6,000 tons of cobalt according to the scale.

Figure 2: Tesla's suppliers and self-made battery breakdown

If Tesla produced 246,000 units in 2018, using 2,000 tons of cobalt, the corresponding cobalt consumption in 2019 is 367,000 units and 2,400 tons of cobalt under NCA conditions (this data is calculated based on Adamas Intelligence). According to Adamas' previous description of 90kwh (7kg) and 78kwh (4.5kg) per vehicle, the data obtained is 1,350 tons and 2,576 tons. There are some gaps here, which are speculated to be due to differences in energy. We can roughly get an order of magnitude for this 6,000 tons, about 2,000 tons for 300,000 vehicles, and 6,000 tons for about 900,000 vehicles.

Figure 3 Calculation of cobalt usage 

02 Model 3's LFP battery solution

After the 333rd batch announcement, Tesla officially announced the models of LFP batteries. As they entered the catalog, we also learned more information, as shown in the following table

After adopting the long module design, the energy density of LFP cells is fixed at 170Wh/kg, while the corresponding NCA and NCM811 cell energy densities are 255.5Wh/kg and 256.8Wh/kg respectively. In terms of pure cell weight, the weight difference between LFP and NCA and NCM is 121.7kg and 116.36kg 

1) LFP 106 cells, total cell weight is 323.2Kg 

2) NCM811 has 2976 cells and weighs 201.5kg 

3) NCA cells have a total of 2976 cells, weighing 206.8kg. The final result is 95kg. Therefore, in the design of the module, the difference between the four modules of the same size is 26.7kg. In principle, the weight difference of LFP long modules under this large module design is not particularly large. Note: Tesla Model 3 cylindrical battery uses a combination of (31P25S) and (31P23S) with a capacity of 148.8Ah and 52.85KWh. In terms of size, the width and height are consistent: the width is 323mm and the height is 81mm; there are differences in length: the longer one is 1.95m and the shorter one is 1.85m; for this size, some fake cells may be maintained inside to maintain the entire structure.

Figure 4 

CATL's final solution was to use a 234Ah 220-width battery cell by lengthening the cell and reducing the height.

Summary: It is almost the end of June. It is estimated that Tesla will release all the news one by one on Battery Day. In fact, at present, LFP can reach more than 50kwh, and the corresponding weight will increase by about 100kg. If it goes higher, the weight will increase even more, which is even less cost-effective.