What opportunities will Apple and MR bring to each other?
Latest update time：2023-05-14
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Text | Director Dong
Source | Yuanchuan Technology Review
Since 2017, rumors that Apple’s VR/AR products will be launched have cropped up from time to time, becoming the focus of discussion in the technology circle every time. In fact, the release time is also a focus within Apple.
According to the Financial Times, Apple's operations team and design team are also arguing over the release time.
The design team wants the product to be better before releasing it, while the operations team wants to release it first and run it before iterating.
In March this year, Apple CEO Cook finally made the decision to launch the first MR product in 2023. But there are different opinions in the industry regarding the release time. Some think it will be during the WWDC in June, but Guolian’s well-known analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes that taking into account the preparations for mass production, the release time will be in the middle to late third quarter.
A quick calculation shows that the difference is only two months, so it doesn't matter.
Apple's MR products are finally coming, and it seems they have to come
. So, will MR bring a big wave like the iPhone?
In 2012, Google X Lab released Google Glass, becoming a pioneer in the field of AR. In 2013, Oculus released its first VR product at the E3 conference, and the effect was very shocking.
Zuckerberg excitedly bought the entire Oculus company after trying out the product in 2014.
In March 2014, Sony executives declared that "
VR will be the next innovation for PlayStation that will change the future of gaming
." In the same year, Valve also announced VR products at the Boston event. In 2015, Microsoft also released its blockbuster product HoloLens.
There is no doubt that in the years when VR/AR was popular,
Apple had nothing to do with it
. Of course, Apple has not focused on this field, but continues to focus on "mobile phones" to welcome the mobile Internet era:
Mobile phone functions are constantly updated and iterated, with colors and sizes taking turns; watches and headphones are released around mobile phones; software and other service ecosystems are expanded based on mobile phones. These strategies have continuously double-clicked Apple's profits and stock price.
Correlation between Apple stock price and product launch, source: CICC Securities
Ten years ago, you looked down on me and I looked down on you.
But ten years later, Apple and the XR industry are heading in both directions
.
On the one hand, although the epidemic has improved Oculus sales, after the epidemic ended, the products were piled in the corner and gathering dust. Although Xiao Zha held high the banner of the Metaverse, the performance that did not meet expectations still made investors vote with their feet. Products such as PICO also have highlights but have no sales.
Compared with the development of the past ten years, the sales volume of the entire industry is not impressive. Global AR/VR headset shipments in 2022 will be 8.8 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 20.9%. It's not a quick burst of action at all.
Although an Oculus angel investor once said, "I have seen five or six products that made me feel that the world would change: Apple II, Netscape, Google, iPhone, and Oculus." But more and more people recognize that
consumer
electronics still comes from Apple
.
On the other hand, Apple also needs XR products to start a new growth curve.
Global mobile phone stock has been at a high level since 2017, and sales are also experiencing negative growth. Although Apple's mobile phones have maintained or even increased some market share due to their brand advantages, under the "cold winter" environment, the iPhone 14 Plus also rarely saw a 40% cut in orders.
More importantly, there are fewer and fewer tricks to play on mobile phones. Even Mr. Ren, a well-known macroeconomist, has made microscopic discoveries and complained many times:
"
iPhone 14 may be a sign of the decline of Apple's empire
; it uses pseudo-innovations such as Smart Island to fool consumers; what's left of Apple is more of a pile of hardware."
Apple's latest financial report shows that Mac computers and iPad tablets are also sluggish, with year-on-year declines of 31.3% and 12.8% respectively.
Therefore, Apple needs to start a new growth curve. One direction is to build cars, but looking at how busy Tesla, BYD, New Force and other companies are, Apple will not join in the fun at this time. Relatively speaking, opponents in the XR field are weaker.
Another angle may be Cook's "self-achievement". During Cook's tenure, Apple also had refreshing and innovative products such as iWatch and TWS headphones, but after all, they were providing services around the iPhone. Headphones were not considered a big item, and iWatch was a legacy designed by Joe. Therefore, Cook still It's hard to compare with Gang Leader Qiao.
But if the self-contained MR product completely led by Cook succeeds, his status will be very different, and he will not be accused by economists of not having an enterprising and innovative soul.
Therefore,
Apple’s MR products are both popular and popular
.
Why is Apple worth looking forward to?
First, of course, it is Apple’s accumulated successful image, with its impressive record of frequent hits in the aesthetic online and consumer electronics fields. This is the foundation laid by Gang Leader Qiao.
Second, Apple is still very strong. In the field of XR, Apple has expanded its layout since 2016 and successively acquired many companies including motion capture, eye tracking, vision, etc.; after 2020, it began to expand into downstream application scenarios. Extension. It is also a series of actions that keep the market full of expectations. At the same time, ARkit has become the largest AR development platform.
Apple’s acquisitions in VR
According to VRPinea, the current Apple MR configuration is still very luxurious, including
Sony’s original single-eye 4K Micro-OLED display, 120° FOV (field of view) 3P Pancake optical module, and eight face and eye cameras. Front tracking camera + dtof lidar, and external power supply equipment
.
The weight of the device can be reduced through external power supply, although it is a bit strange to carry a battery on the body; the Pancake solution reduces the size of the device and makes it lighter. However, the current disadvantage of this solution is that the cost is relatively high, so the product is priced at around US$3,000.
Speaking of pricing, this is Apple's third advantage. Some people believe that the price of Apple MR is too high, equivalent to 20,000 yuan in RMB, and there is no market. But in fact, whether the price is high or not depends on how Apple uses this device.
If you can only play games alone at home, then the price of 3,000 US dollars is still a bit high; but if you can wear it, walk on the street, in the office, on public transportation, and enjoy the treatment of being looked at twice, then It can definitely be sold at this price.
According to the diffusion theory of innovative products, early adopters have very low price sensitivity and even need a high positioning to cater to demand. Just like Tesla in the early days, it first used high prices to attract celebrities, so as to ensure stable cash flow, continue research and development, expand production, and then popularize more civilian versions of its products. The same goes for Apple's iPhone.
Therefore, the high initial price of Apple’s MR products is not a problem. On the contrary, some companies that launched low-priced products fell into a strange circle: low product pricing and thin profits made it impossible to continue research and development. Instead, they attracted more negative reviews, damaged the brand, and subsequently affected subsequent sales.
Making money at a loss is not applicable in the early stages of innovative products
.
Of course, many companies also know this. The difficulty is that no one accepts high prices. In comparison, Apple's appeal is much greater.
In addition, Apple’s appeal to application developers is also strong enough. After all, the popularity of the iOS system is there, which is much better than Meta. The final advantage is naturally Apple’s accumulated supply chain system. This provides guarantee for the rapid cost reduction and popularization of later products.
Apple itself has both software, hardware and ecological strength, and now it is also ushering in a new driving force: ChatGPT.
The amazing performance of generative AI also gives wearable devices more room for imagination, especially improving the intelligence of Siri. Cook also briefly expressed his views on AI, saying that it is already in use, such as the fall detection function of Apple Watch, which is "not only a great feature, but also saves people's lives."
中泰证券王芳电子团队，对几家产品做了成本拆解，可以看到
显著差异在于芯片和屏幕
。苹果采用自研芯片后，成本大幅下降，而为了更好的体验，则加大了对显示的支出。
Cost calculation of each XR product
The CICC Securities Electronics Peng Hu team also split and estimated Apple BOOM, and the structural proportions are roughly the same. The screen occupies a large part, and the rest are structural parts.
Apple MR parts and module suppliers and BOOM calculations
Since the product has not yet been released, related parts are still speculative. Therefore, let’s conduct a simple analysis of the screen and optics.
In terms of optical solutions,
Pancake
is very certain and has gradually become the mainstream of XR products. The Pancake solution is thinner and lighter. Compared with the traditional Fresnel solution, the thickness is reduced by 50% and the weight is reduced by about 30%. It can also reduce graphic distortion and support diopter adjustment.
In this field, mainland companies engaged in similar business include Sanlipu, whose main product is polarized light. In 2022, the company laid out the optical film that must be used in the Pancake solution. According to the company’s statement on the interactive platform,
it is the first manufacturer in mainland China with mass production capabilities for related optical films
.
In order to improve the dizziness effect, Pancake superimposed
"zoom technology"
is also the current mainstream solution.
There are two types of zoom: mechanical zoom and electronic zoom. The electronic type uses a liquid crystal lens to adjust the refractive index to adjust the focal length. The effect is good but the technology is not yet mature. Apple may use
"mechanical variable focus technology"
, which achieves focus adjustment through motors and precision gear modules. In 2021, Apple announced relevant patents.
Mechanical zoom technology has the same basic principles as camera optical zoom technology, but is more mature and easier to scale. Domestic companies with related business in this field include Zhaowei Electromechanical and so on. This company focuses on precision systems in the automotive field, including electric rear wing solutions and so on. The company's annual report shows that in the AR/VR field, the company's micro transmission system is used in automatic adjustment devices for equipment.
In terms of screens, Apple plans to use Micro OLED
supplied by Sony
. Compared with the current mainstream Fast LCD, Micro OLED has many advantages, such as high refresh rate, small size, low power consumption, and short response time. It can not only reduce dizziness but also reduce heating. Of course, costs will rise, and currently Apple MR accounts for about 40% of the cost.
In the long run, since the upper limit of the brightness of Micro OLED is not high, Micro LED
will eventually be more suitable when it solves the difficulty of mass production. From a medium-term perspective, the penetration rate of Micro OLED will increase rapidly. DSCC predicts that the scale may reach US$2.6 billion in 2024. But it should be noted that
this is a rising star and a spare tire.
The Micro OLED industry chain includes raw materials, equipment, components, etc. in the upstream, and panel manufacturing in the midstream. Like semiconductors, key equipment and raw materials in the array and evaporation processes are still dominated by Japanese, Korean and American manufacturers.
Domestic companies are also actively making breakthroughs.
Suzhou Huaxing Yuanchuang
mainly focuses on panel inspection equipment and whole-line inspection system solutions, covering LCD, MiniLED, etc. The Micro OLEED series products have also been verified by Sony and are on the road to mass production.
Suzhou Qingyue Technology
, which started with PMOLED technology, has now formed a product structure and business structure focusing on three major businesses: PMOLED, electronic paper modules and silicon-based OLED microdisplays. The annual report shows that the silicon-based OLED microdisplay 8-inch wafer mass production line built to seize the application terminal opportunities in the field of virtual reality and augmented display has begun batch shipments to customers in 2022.
Jilin OLED
is mainly engaged in the research, development and production of upstream organic light-emitting materials and evaporation source equipment for OLED. The evaporation source is the core component of the key equipment evaporation machine. The 6th generation AMOLED linear evaporation source produced by the company has successfully broken the foreign monopoly and achieved import substitution. The company’s customers include BOE, Shentianma, etc.
Since Micro OLED uses silicon-based substrates, companies whose main business is in the semiconductor field, including Northern Huachuang and Jingce Electronics, also have R&D related equipment.
Traditional panel players such as BOE and CSOT will naturally not miss the opportunity of Micro OLED.
MicroOLED industry chain
However, what needs more consideration is that on the one hand, it is necessary to wait for the popularity of Apple MR before related industries can usher in opportunities; on the other hand, companies that need to enter Apple orders will benefit more; finally, the business of different companies The elasticity is also different.
Another implicit risk is that the current world environment is very different from that of 2013. Apple has already discussed and taken actions to shift its industrial chain, and
the big wave of MR may also drive overseas supply chains
.
From this perspective,
having a strong consumer electronics brand has become a profit engine for the industry, and it is also a high ground that is difficult but must be occupied
. Regrettably, our country, which was the last country to launch a "charge" to the "high ground", has already encountered obstacles on the way. Who will charge next?
- END -
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