LiDAR, China is far ahead

Latest update time：2024-10-17

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Source: Content compiled from Yole, thank you.

The global automotive LiDAR market is expected to grow from $538 million in 2023 to $3,632 million in 2029, at a CAGR of 38% between 2023 and 2029. While in 2022 we were at a crossroads between the PC and LCV market and the robo-taxi market, in 2023 the PC and LCV market now clearly dominates the market.

The first self-driving taxi services were launched in Singapore in August 2016 by NuTonomy, and took the first steps in 2017 with the entry of Waymo and Cruise, which began operations in Phoenix, Arizona and San Francisco, California, respectively. Since then, we have seen Chinese companies such as Didi, AutoX, and Baidu enter the market. All of these companies have opened new services in cities around the world, making the lidar market for self-driving taxis far ahead of the lidar market for passenger cars.

But in 2023 and 2024, after a series of events, Waymo and Cruise significantly slowed down their activities. This has a direct impact on the self-driving taxi market. This may also affect the long-term market as the companies need to regain the trust of the public.

The robo-taxi market is worth $124 million in 2023, while the PC and LCV market is worth $414 million. The passenger car market is more than three times larger than the robo-taxi market and is seeing real take-off.

Since 2018, we have monitored nearly 200 design-win cases. 124 of them are scheduled to be launched in 2024 or later, and nearly 90% of them are from Chinese OEMs. Chinese OEMs are clearly pushing for the integration of LiDAR in their vehicles. While EU or US OEMs limit LiDAR to F-segment, Chinese OEMs are launching D-segment cars. In 2023, the first C-segment cars are already monitored. These cars are much cheaper than F-segment cars and have higher production volumes, so the production volumes of LiDAR are also higher. This leads to a significant drop in the price of LiDAR.

RoboSense and Hesai are currently in the clear lead

The automotive LiDAR (PC & LCV and robo-taxi) ecosystem is still quite large with 44 companies monitored. Some are already in mass production, while others have less LiDAR activity or are still in the R&D phase, developing the next generation of LiDAR. In the robo-taxi market, few players are generating significant revenue.

Hesai controls the market with 73% market share as their LiDAR can be found in most self-driving taxis such as Cruise, Aurora, Apollo, Didi, Pony.ai and AutoX. In the PC&LCV market, the situation is developing rapidly and has changed again compared to last year.

Since Seyond (formerly Innovusion) only works with Nio, they have been surpassed by RoboSense and Hesai. Seyond is now in third place. In 2023, RoboSense and Hesai dominate the market as they can be found with nearly 460,000 LiDARs on the road. This accounts for more than 60% of the total LiDAR shipments in 2023.

Hesai and RoboSense are expected to continue to lead the passenger car LiDAR market, occupying the top two positions in 2024. The biggest win for these companies is to win design orders from global OEMs, which will prove the robustness of their technology.

Increased production and technological advances have reduced average selling prices

In terms of technology, of the four categories we looked at, only one is expected to remain roughly the same over the next decade. In the other three categories, we could see major developments in imaging technology, emitter types, and the types of photodetectors used. Wavelength is the only factor that remains stable.

Near-infrared (NIR) wavelengths (905/940nm) are expected to account for 90% of passenger car LiDAR volume by 2024. The split between NIR and short-wave infrared (SWIR) is expected to remain similar over the next decade. In terms of imaging technology, hybrid solid-state LiDAR based on rotating mirrors dominates and is expected to account for 66% of volume in 2024, followed by MEMS-based LiDAR at 32%.

The share of LiDAR based on rotating mirrors should still be 52% (in units) in the next decade. The share of MEMS is expected to drop to 6%, but the main difference may be the emergence of flash LiDAR, which may account for 37% of shipments in the next decade. This change is related to the changes in light emitters and photodetectors. In fact, VCSEL arrays based on multi-junction layers are improving rapidly, and combined with SiPM or SPAD, they will be able to provide fully solid-state LiDAR without moving parts. LiDAR manufacturers are now using higher shipments and new technologies to reduce the cost of LiDAR.

By 2023, the price of LiDAR in China could be less than $500. We are also hearing more and more about FMCW LiDAR, competing with dTOF LiDAR. FMCW LiDAR is just emerging, and manufacturers are currently targeting niche applications such as metrology or defense.

In these applications, price is not a big barrier for customers. In the automotive sector, FMCW LiDAR is not expected to be available until 2027/2028. Supply needs to be established and stabilized, and many challenges related to computing, thermal management or integration need to be solved.

Reference Links

https://www.yolegroup.com/product/report/lidar-for-automotive-2024/?utm_source=PR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PR_Automotive_LiDAR_Comprison_YOLEGROUP_Oct2024

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