Global semiconductor sales: up 2.3% month-on-month, down 11.8% year-on-year

Zeng Ruiyu, senior director of industry research at the International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI), recently said that the global semiconductor boom has bottomed out in the second quarter of this year, but the inventory depletion process is slower than expected and the end market recovery is slow. Even if the semiconductor output value in the third quarter is estimated to be quarter-on-quarter, An increase of 6%, but overall visibility is still low.

Xu Xiulan, chairman of Global Crystal, also echoed the latest SEMI report and said that the silicon wafer industry is a lagging indicator and the industry will still have inventory adjustment pressure in the second half of the year. However, it is estimated that inventory correction will come to an end in the second quarter of next year and demand is expected to rebound.

This is the latest opinion of SEMI industry analysts and semiconductor heavyweights on the current semiconductor boom trends before the launch of the International Semiconductor Exhibition (SEMICON Taiwan).

The International Semiconductor Exhibition kicked off today. Zeng Ruiyu pointed out that sales of electronic equipment and semiconductors bottomed out in the second quarter of this year, and the third quarter is expected to rebound from the second quarter.

Zeng Ruiyu said that even though the current recovery visibility of the semiconductor industry is low, overall equipment support is better than expected. In particular, mainland China is subject to US control of advanced process equipment, and investment is focused on mature processes. For this reason, SEMI originally predicted that global semiconductor equipment will decline by 18.6% this year. , dropped from US$107 billion last year to US$87 billion, and may be slightly revised up to a recession of about 14%, still about US$92 billion; recovery next year is worth looking forward to, and it is estimated that the second quarter will be the starting point of recovery. Semiconductor equipment and materials are estimated to grow by 8.2% annually next year, with the output value returning to the level of 100 billion US dollars.

Zeng Ruiyu said that although terminal demand is recovering, it is estimated that semiconductor sales will increase by 6% in the third quarter, but the overall market situation is probably only that PC demand has rebounded significantly, and mobile phone sales are still very weak; the slow recovery of terminal demand has also caused overall inventory The depletion rate is slower than expected, and it is expected that inventories will return to normal levels by the end of this year or the first half of next year.

Xu Xiulan said that the recent positive news in the silicon wafer industry is that Global Wafer's customers estimate that revenue will increase by about 10% this quarter, which is similar to SEMI's estimate. However, the customer's production capacity utilization rate has not yet picked up, which also means that The client is still adjusting inventory and continuing to digest the inventory on hand.

Oxford Economics pointed out at the end of July that the GDP growth of Taiwan and South Korea in recent quarters has been severely hit by the semiconductor downturn. Due to the re-emergence of consumer electronics demand, the manufacturing boom in North Asia has now bottomed out. It is estimated that the recovery of semiconductors should eventually accelerate. According to the pace, the growth momentum of Taiwan and South Korea's technology exporters is expected to accelerate again at the end of 2024 and 2025.

According to the Oxford research team's long-term study of semiconductor cycle changes, it shows that semiconductor cycles are rarely symmetrical, usually with a sharp decline followed by a rather long and gentle recovery. "There is no reason this cycle should be different," the Oxford team pointed out. Although the semiconductor cycle may have bottomed out, the initial rebound from the bottom is currently expected to be more modest, and the gentle recovery curve will coincide with a sharp slowdown in the global economy. The recovery of chip-related industries may only make a "modest" contribution to Asia's economic growth initially.

Annual growth in global semiconductor sales fell by 21.1% in May. Although the contraction was similar to that in April and March, Oxford pointed out that from the perspective of single-month changes, the market has reached or exceeded the trough, and GDP has been hit by the semiconductor downturn. The most serious Asian economies are Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore and Malaysia. For example, Taiwan's annual GDP growth rate in 2023 was revised down by Oxford to only 0.1% and South Korea's 0.8%.

Oxford said that fortunately, manufacturers in various countries continue to work hard to improve inventories and gain momentum for new orders in the face of difficulties. Trade data shows that the trend is changing. Asian semiconductor exports have stabilized in recent months. Currently, until the end of the year, the GDP growth of Malaysia, Taiwan and Singapore The rate has surged to around 6%, which means that the growth of these four countries is expected to rebound strongly in the second half of this year. In other words, the semiconductor recovery should eventually accelerate.

The Oxford team pointed out that final demand for traditional electronic products such as personal computers and smartphones remains weak, but there is evidence that demand will soon begin to pick up as equipment purchased during the epidemic begins to be replaced. In addition, AI artificial intelligence is transforming into greater demand for chips. Leading manufacturer TSMC has strong sales in the second quarter in response to Nvidia's high demand. However, AI will not immediately become a panacea to solve global chip demand. It is a relatively new technology. The market, growth base is small, and its end-use demand will be a long-term journey.