Samsung Semiconductor: No. 1 in the World
Latest update time：2021-12-31
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Source: The content is compiled by Semiconductor Industry Watch (ID: icbank) from businesskorea , thank you.
According to businesskorea, Samsung Electronics is expected to surpass Intel to become the world's top semiconductor company in terms of sales in 2021.
The report noted that the South Korean semiconductor giant surpassed Intel for two years starting in 2017 due to the semiconductor super cycle. However, as memory demand shrank, Intel took the first position between 2019 and 2020.
According to data from financial information provider FnGuide on December 29, South Korean securities firms predict that Samsung Electronics' semiconductor sales will reach 95,130 billion won in 2021. This is a 30.6% increase from 72,858 billion won in 2020 and a 10.2% increase from 86,291 billion won in 2018, winning the highest sales ever.
The securities firm predicts that Samsung Electronics' semiconductor sales will reach 26.98 billion won in the fourth quarter of 2021, exceeding the all-time high of 26.4069 billion won set in the third quarter of this year.
Intel is likely to drop to second place in 2021. According to market research firm IC Insights, Intel's sales in 2021 are expected to reach $75.5 billion, down 1% from the previous year. IC Insights predicts that sales of its flagship microprocessor unit (MPU) will achieve reverse growth while remaining unchanged.
Samsung Electronics' semiconductor business is expected to maintain its growth momentum in 2022. The securities firm predicts that its semiconductor sales will reach 112,109 billion won next year. This is an increase of 18% from sales in 2021. This means that Samsung Electronics will become the world's first semiconductor company with annual sales exceeding 100 trillion won (about 84 billion US dollars).
Samsung Electronics' semiconductor sales are tilted toward memory products. Non-storage system semiconductors accounted for only 21.2% of its semiconductor sales in 2021, a decrease of 5.3 percentage points compared with 2020. Sales of system semiconductors increased by only 4.3%, while sales of memory semiconductors increased by 38.7% in one year.
Samsung Electronics has revealed System Semiconductor Vision 2030 to address its heavy reliance on memory products. The chipmaker aims to increase sales of its own system semiconductors and develop its semiconductor foundry business. Its system semiconductor sales are expected to exceed 20 trillion won for the first time in 2021 and break 25 trillion won next year.
Meanwhile, SK Hynix's sales this year are expected to reach 42.9 trillion won, a record high, up 34.4% year-on-year. Industry experts expect SK Hynix's annual sales to reach 50 trillion won in 2022.
IC insights: 17 semiconductor companies will have sales exceeding $10 billion this year
IC Insights is updating its comprehensive forecast and analysis of the IC industry for the 25th edition of The McLean Report, which will be released in January 2022.
As shown in the figure, IC Insights predicts that in 2021, based on the sales of global semiconductor (IC and OSD - optoelectronics, sensors and discrete devices) companies, 17 companies are expected to have revenues exceeding $10 billion. Three more semiconductor companies have been added than before, namely AMD, NXP and Analog Devices. They also listed a list of "large suppliers" worth noting in 2021.
These large suppliers include nine U.S.-based suppliers, three in Europe, two each in Taiwan and South Korea, and one in Japan. The list includes six fabless companies (Qualcomm, Nvidia, Broadcom, MediaTek, AMD, and Apple) and one pure-play foundry (TSMC).
Overall, sales of large suppliers are expected to increase by 26% in 2021 compared to 2020, 1 percentage point higher than the 25% growth forecast for the global semiconductor industry in 2021/2020.
To make the year-over-year growth rate comparison more reflective of actual growth, the sales data includes semiconductor sales acquired by each company in 2020 and 2021, regardless of when the acquisition was completed. For example, Analog Devices officially completed its acquisition of Maxim on August 25, 2021. However, IC Insights added Maxim's full-year 2020 IC sales of $2.354 billion to Analog Devices' 2020 semiconductor sales total of $8.127 billion. In addition, Analog Devices' Q1 2021 sales were added by $665 million to make up Maxim's Q1 21 revenue, and Analog Devices' Q2 sales were added by another $720 million to reflect Maxim's semiconductor sales during that period. Since the deal was finalized in late August, about two-thirds of the way through Q3 2021, Analog Devices' Q3 2021 sales have increased by $500 million.
Growth rates for the 17 major suppliers are expected to range from 65% for AMD to -1% for Intel in 2021. Four companies – AMD, MediaTek, Nvidia and Qualcomm – are expected to see sales growth of more than 50% this year.
Samsung is expected to have semiconductor sales of nearly $83.1 billion in 2021, making it the largest semiconductor supplier this year. Driven by the recovery of the memory market and Intel's relatively flat sales performance, Samsung once again replaced Intel as the leading semiconductor producer starting in the second quarter of 2021 (Figure 2). With the DRAM market and the NAND flash memory market showing strong growth in 2021, Samsung's sales are expected to increase by 34% in 2021/2020, and lead second-ranked Intel by $7.5 billion this year.
IC Insights: IC market growth to hit record high this year
IC Insights expects the IC market to grow by 26% in 2021, the highest growth rate since 2010.
Figure 1 shows the 1Q/4Q IC Market Directional Indicator developed by IC Insights 24 years ago. The figure is labeled "Directional Indicator" because the actual 1Q/4Q change does not directly predict the final annual IC market growth for a given year, but rather more accurately describes the expected direction and strength of the annual IC market growth rate compared to the previous year. For example, 2017 showed a 1Q/4Q increase of 0% and an annual IC market growth rate of 25%, while 2011 showed a 1Q/4Q increase of 1%, but the full-year IC market growth rate was only 1%. The difference is the 1Q/4Q change compared to the previous year's 1Q/4Q change.
Excluding the years following the severe IC industry downturns of 1985 and 2001, IC Insights believes that the 1Q/4Q quarterly IC market changes are a good indicator of the direction and strength of future annual changes in the IC market. The reason why this model is a good indicator of the direction of the annual growth rate of the IC industry lies in the seasonality of the IC market itself. Given the typical quarterly seasonality pattern of the IC industry, the first quarter essentially establishes a "foundation" upon which future quarterly IC market growth will be built.
In general, when the Q1/Q4 performance of a given year is better than the Q1/Q4 performance of the previous year, the annual growth rate for that year is expected to be better than the previous year. The opposite is usually true when the Q1/Q4 performance of the current year is worse than the previous year.
figure 1
From 1984 through 2020, the average seasonal quarter-over-quarter decline in the 1Q/4Q IC market was 2%. In 1Q20, the IC market was down 3% compared to 4Q19, slightly below the historical average. A 3% change in the 2021/4Q20 IC market is much better than the -3% change in the 2020/4Q20 IC market. As a result, IC Insights believes that the full-year IC market growth rate in 2021 (26%) will be much better than the 13% growth the IC market experienced in 2020. Conversely, with the 2022/4Q21 IC market projected to decline by 3%, IC market directional indicators point to much lower IC market growth in 2022 than in 2021 (11% in 2022 vs. 26% in 2021). If 1Q22/4Q21 IC market growth surprises to the upside by -3%, our 11% forecast for next year may need to be revised upward.
It is worth noting that the 1Q/4Q 2020 IC market grew 3% in total, marking the first time the IC market has experienced positive growth since 2011 (Figure 2). As shown, of the 15 positive first quarters since 1984, all but three years (shaded in the chart) ended with strong double-digit growth for the full year. For 2021, IC Insights currently forecasts that the IC market will grow 26%, slightly higher than the average annual growth rate of 24% for the IC market since 1984, with 1Q/4Q IC market growth being positive.
Although the first quarter of the year is often considered a "down" quarter due to seasonality, a positive 1Q/4Q IC market is not uncommon. During the 38-year period from 1984 to 2021, the IC market saw 16 positive 1Q/4Q increases (42% of the time). Even narrowing the time span to the more recent 2000-2021 time frame, there were seven instances where the 1Q/4Q IC market changes were positive.
figure 2
*Disclaimer: This article is originally written by the author. The content of the article is the author's personal opinion. Semiconductor Industry Observer reprints it only to convey a different point of view. It does not mean that Semiconductor Industry Observer agrees or supports this point of view. If you have any objections, please contact Semiconductor Industry Observer.
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