How long will the chip industry remain hot?
Latest update time：2021-07-28
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| China's chip industry in the next decade
Since the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Finance and other departments jointly issued the "National Integrated Circuit Industry Development Promotion Outline" in 2014, and the establishment of the Big Fund, my country's integrated circuit industry has entered a rapid development stage. Especially after the ZTE and Huawei incidents, China's integrated circuit industry has reached an unprecedented level of popularity.
The introduction of policies, the support of large funds and various capitals, the surge in the number of startups, the continuous signing of projects in various regions, and the overwhelming number of industrial activities all indicate the degree of enthusiasm. At this point, we must think about this question: how long can the chip industry remain hot?
Strategy Analytics believes that the chip industry will continue to be hot for at least 10 years. During these 10 years, the first five years were guided by policies and followed by capital, and the industry continued to expand rapidly. The second five years benefited from the gradual improvement of the industrial chain layout and the stable performance of large-scale enterprises, and the model was dominated by industry heat.
Policy Hot
Looking back at the popularity in recent years, the National Big Fund in 2014 was an important measure for China to develop the integrated circuit industry. The "Outline for Promoting the Development of the National Integrated Circuit Industry" issued by the State Council clearly states that the National Industrial Investment Fund mainly attracts large enterprises, financial institutions and social funds, adopts market-oriented operations, focuses on supporting the development of industries such as integrated circuits, and promotes industrial transformation and upgrading. The 15-year investment plan mentioned therein, that is, 2015~2019 is the investment period, 2019~2024 is the exit period, and 2025~2030 is the extension period, which coincides with the time of the industry heat wave judged by Xinmou Research.
The second phase of the Big Fund, which was officially registered in 2019, raised more than 200 billion yuan and has publicly invested in more than 10 projects. In terms of investment direction, the first phase focused on leading companies in the manufacturing field, while the second phase significantly increased equipment and material projects, focusing more on investment in basic fields.
At present, the policy enthusiasm continues to heat up. According to the "Several Policies to Promote the High-Quality Development of the Integrated Circuit Industry and the Software Industry in the New Era" (Guofa [2020] No. 8) issued last year, my country will support the development of the integrated circuit and software industries in terms of finance and taxation, investment and financing, research and development, import and export, talents, intellectual property rights, market applications, and international cooperation. The most critical thing is that the word integrated circuit is placed before software, which is a great honor. It shows the importance of the integrated circuit industry at the national level and also sends many positive signals.
In addition, local governments have continuously responded to the call and successively issued a number of policies for the regional integrated circuit industry. From the 13th Five-Year Plan to the 14th Five-Year Plan, more and more provinces, cities and even districts have entered the 100 billion-level integrated circuit club, and some have even exceeded 200 billion. For example, several districts in Shanghai, Pudong plans to reach a full industrial chain scale of 400 billion yuan in 2025, and the number of integrated circuit companies listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board will double; Lingang District also plans to break the 100 billion yuan industry scale. The optimism about the scale of the regional integrated circuit industry shows that the region attaches great importance to the industry and will place the integrated circuit industry in an important position in regional planning in the next five years.
Such positive signals have given great motivation to capital parties, and capital's enthusiasm for integrated circuits has continued to rise in recent years. In particular, the sudden outbreak of the epidemic in 2020 has affected the pace of development of the global semiconductor industry, and the complex international situation has made the demand for domestic development even more vigorous. Investors believe that as long as it is a good domestic alternative, it is an excellent target. In terms of investment and financing, this year has reached a peak. Data show that the amount of investment in the chip industry in the first half of 2021 is comparable to the investment amount for the whole of last year. The establishment of the Science and Technology Innovation Board has provided capital with an exit channel, and the capital "carnival" has reached a maximum value.
In terms of the number of companies, Qichacha data shows a very fierce trend. In 2020, 22,800 chip-related companies were registered throughout the year, and from the beginning of this year to the end of May, the number of registered chip companies reached 15,700, a year-on-year increase of 230%. The total number is 67,000. Core Research believes that the growth trend of chip company registrations will reach an extreme value in the next few years and tend to stabilize. Matching the number of companies is the number of new Chinese wafer fabs. According to data released by SEMI this year, global semiconductor manufacturers will start building 19 new high-capacity wafer fabs by the end of this year, and another 10 wafer fabs will be started in 2022. Among them, 8 new wafer fabs will be built in mainland China and Taiwan in the next two years, far ahead of other regions.
Strategy Analytics believes that the chain reaction caused by the policy enthusiasm will continue for another five years. During these five years, local industrial policies will continue to increase and capital will continue to be invested. As the window of opportunity continues to shrink, the policy enthusiasm will gradually cool down. By then, domestic integrated circuit companies will have developed and matured, and leaders with international influence will emerge in various fields of the industrial chain. The policy enthusiasm will gradually turn into industrial enthusiasm.
Industry Hot
The policy enthusiasm is gradually cooling down,
the policy window period is tightening, the national policy for the development of the integrated circuit industry is becoming more perfect, and the development of the integrated circuit industry has become a national awareness.
Integrated circuit projects follow the development principle of "main body concentration and regional agglomeration". At the policy level, we will strengthen services and guidance for the construction of major integrated circuit projects, orderly guide and regulate the development order of the integrated circuit industry, and make good planning and layout. We will guide the industry to strengthen self-discipline and avoid vicious competition. While regulating the market with high-quality policies, we will gradually establish a prevention mechanism to reduce risks and prevent "interested people" from taking advantage of opportunities.
In the hot development stage of the industry,
enterprises have developed to a certain scale, and the industrial chain has entered a period of strong alliance.
As the industrial chain continues to mature, the policy behavior of the industry gradually changes to market behavior, and giants in various fields are initially formed. They begin to complete the breakthrough of the scale of the enterprise itself through acquisitions and explore new fields. Giant enterprises have formed a certain monopoly situation, and it is difficult for start-ups to survive unless they are absolutely innovative.
After the domestic substitution period, enterprises pursue technological innovation.
As mentioned above, only start-ups with innovative technologies can survive. The days of domestic substitution have formed a group of stable scale enterprises, and it is difficult to replace domestic products. Enterprises continue to expand in emerging fields, seek breakthroughs in intellectual property rights, and achieve greater progress in technology.
Equipment and materials companies have reached a certain scale, and more areas have broken through bottleneck challenges.
Under the complex international situation, domestic companies have achieved product and technology iterations under the continuous iteration of domestic solutions, especially in the field of equipment and materials. Domestic related companies have a certain industrial scale and occupy more domestic and foreign markets. With the continuous breakthroughs in key technologies, some bottleneck technologies in the field of equipment and materials have been broken and gradually improved.
The talent structure has gradually improved, and the linkage between industry, academia and research has basically matured.
In the policy guidance stage, talent issues have been raised to an important position by various regions, and the linkage between enterprises and universities has been strengthened, gradually improving the structure of industry, academia and research. With the continuous improvement of the first-level discipline of integrated circuits, integrated circuit talents have begun to continuously enter the market, providing fresh blood for the domestic integrated circuit industry.
Summarize
At present, the integrated circuit industry relies on strong policy stimulation to attract capital to continuously invest in the integrated circuit industry. The supporting policies of local governments are also constantly being improved, and they are "thirsty" for integrated circuit companies. However, the industry cannot always rely on policy stimulation. With the continuous maturity of the industrial chain, companies in various fields have a certain scale of leaders. The integrated circuit industry has begun to enter a period of industrial boom, and more market-oriented behaviors are driving the industry. It takes at least ten years from policy boom to industrial boom. Ten years of hard work, these ten years are the golden period of the industry and also the key period of industrial development.
About Strategy Analytics:
ICwise is committed to becoming a world-class research institution rooted in China in the semiconductor and electronics industry. In April 2021, it won the "Special Industry Contribution Award" of the 20th Anniversary of the Shanghai Integrated Circuit Industry Association. Currently, ICwise has five major departments.
Data Research Department
: Based on the research team's in-depth understanding of the industry, through extensive contacts with the industry and comprehensive research, this department establishes a first-hand industry market database, and publishes authoritative market data, dynamic tracking and provides standard report products.
Corporate Services Department 1
: This department is positioned to serve enterprises and industries, and mainly provides customized research services and consulting services based on the personalized and specialized needs of customers.
Corporate Services Department II
: This department provides global and domestic semiconductor industry research services, focusing on serving internationally renowned semiconductor companies, investment institutions and financial clients.
Government Service Department
: This department serves the central and local governments at all levels and relevant departments, commissions and bureaus, helping the government and enterprises to establish extensive exchanges and cooperation.
Research and Review Department
: Adhering to the principle of "seeking stability rather than speed, seeking precision rather than novelty, seeking depth rather than favor, seeking quality rather than quantity", we insist on original and in-depth content, from news to opinions, from phenomena to essence, from problems to solutions.
From 2015 to 2020, Xinmou Research has held six consecutive
Xinmou Research Integrated Circuit Industry Leaders Summits
, which have become one of the most influential industry summits in China. In 2021, Xinmou Research created the offline salon brand "I Say IC!", and is committed to becoming the most influential salon brand for IC people.
*Disclaimer: This article is originally written by the author. The content of the article is the author's personal opinion. Semiconductor Industry Observer reprints it only to convey a different point of view. It does not mean that Semiconductor Industry Observer agrees or supports this point of view. If you have any objections, please contact Semiconductor Industry Observer.
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